TASI Market Outlook — April 2026: Earnings Season Takes the Wheel

April is the month where narrative gives way to numbers. After three months of structural reform stories (foreign investor access), macro shocks (Iran conflict, Hormuz closure), and oil price arithmetic, Q1 earnings season will tell investors whether the companies inside TASI have actually performed in line with — or better than — the macro tailwinds that have been building. The index enters April at approximately 11,276 points, having closed Q1 at 11,167 and ticked up a further 0.23% on April 1 alone.
Year-to-date performance of +6.45% through early April positions TASI among the stronger-performing emerging market indices in the region. Daily trading value has consistently exceeded SAR 6 billion — a level reflecting both domestic retail participation and growing international investor access under the new foreign ownership framework. Total negotiated deal flow for Q1 2026 stood at SAR 8.9 billion across 721 transactions, signalling institutional conviction that persists even through the geopolitical noise.
Banking Sector — The Earnings Engine
The consensus going into reporting season is banking sector profit growth of 8–12% year-on-year for Q1 2026. The case for this is well-constructed: net interest margins have remained elevated following 2025's rate environment, Vision 2030-linked project financing has kept loan books growing, and the opening of the Saudi market to foreign investors creates a secondary tailwind through higher fee income from brokerage and custody services. Al Rajhi Bank, the Saudi National Bank, Riyad Bank, and Alinma are the four prints to watch. Any upside surprise on NIM guidance would likely push banking stocks — already up significantly since January — to new highs.
Saudi banks' investments in government treasury bonds reached SAR 658.2 billion in February 2026, up approximately 10% year-on-year — reflecting both the government's sustained borrowing needs (SAR 58 billion target for 2026) and the banks' appetite for risk-free yield at current rate levels. This dynamic plays directly into their net interest income figures.
Aramco — The Pivotal Print
Aramco's Q1 2026 results will be the single most watched corporate earnings event on Tadawul this reporting cycle. With Brent crude having traded above $100 for most of Q1 — and spiking as high as $119 in March following Hormuz-related supply disruption fears — the revenue line should be materially ahead of year-ago figures. The question is whether capital expenditure guidance and dividend policy remain unchanged. Aramco maintained its dividend at $124.3 billion annually — a commitment that represents one of the largest cash distributions in global corporate history. Any signal of a dividend increase, or conversely any hint at capex cuts due to geopolitical disruption to field operations, would move the stock significantly.
Key Event Calendar
OPEC+ meeting: The April gathering of OPEC+ producers is the most consequential near-term risk event. Any decision to accelerate production increases — which had been gradually unwinding since 2024 — would pressure oil prices and reverse the fiscal surplus narrative that has been supporting Saudi equities. Consensus expects the group to hold or modestly increase production given the supply disruption from the Hormuz situation. A surprise hawkish output decision would be a meaningful negative for TASI. IPO pipeline: Several companies in technology and healthcare are reportedly preparing to list in Q2 2026, which would broaden the Tadawul's sector composition and attract incremental foreign interest.
Scenarios for April
Bull case (probability: 30%): Banking earnings beat by more than 10%, Aramco announces a dividend increase, OPEC+ holds production, Hormuz de-escalates. TASI tests 12,000. Base case (probability: 50%): Earnings in line, Aramco stable, OPEC+ modest increase, Hormuz remains tense but contained. TASI trades 11,000–11,600. Bear case (probability: 20%): Earnings miss, Hormuz escalates further restricting shipping, oil spike causes global demand fears. TASI retests the 10,400–10,600 zone.