TASI Market Wrap — November 2025: The Steepest Month of a Bruising Year

November arrived with pressure already baked into the tape. The index entered the month at approximately 11,556 points and never found its footing, sliding to a close of around 10,491 — a loss of 1,065 points, or 9.1%, across the month. That single number tells the story of a market that absorbed several shocks in rapid sequence and found few buyers willing to step in front of the selling.

The backdrop was familiar but intensifying. U.S.-China trade tensions had been a weight on global risk appetite throughout 2025, and November brought no relief. Domestically, the Saudi 2026 budget — published during the month — projected a deficit of SAR 165.4 billion against revenues of SAR 1.15 trillion and expenditures of SAR 1.31 trillion. While the figures were broadly in line with expectations, the confirmation of a deficit at that scale dampened sentiment in a market already pricing in softer oil revenues.

Aramco, which accounts for a disproportionate share of TASI's weighting, was a significant drag. Brent crude's drift toward the mid-$70s removed the earnings buffer that had supported the stock through much of H1. The single worst session of Q4 fell on November 25, when TASI dropped 1.5% in a single day, reflecting panic selling as global equity markets repriced risk.

Sector Breakdown

Media and Entertainment led losses for the full year with a 49% decline through November — the sector's structural challenges showing no sign of reversal. Utilities fell 47% on a YTD basis, undermined by regulatory pricing constraints and cost-of-capital concerns. Consumer durables were down 35% on the back of weaker discretionary spending and inventory build-up across key retailers. Basic materials shed 11%, hurt by falling petrochemical margins and SABIC's continued pressure from Chinese competition. The banking sector, by contrast, proved its defensive credentials again — down just 0.1% year-to-date through November, supported by strong net interest margins and robust loan book growth tied to Vision 2030 project financing.

Traded value across the month fell sharply. The full-year total through November pointed toward a 30% decline in annual traded value versus 2024, ultimately closing at SAR 1.30 trillion for 2025 versus SAR 1.86 trillion the prior year. Daily liquidity dried up, with December eventually recording the lowest single-month traded value of the year at around SAR 76 billion.

Notable Stock Movements

On the decliners side, names in media, tourism, and small-cap retail bore the brunt. Naseej International Trading topped the full-year losers list, a pattern that would repeat into December. On the positive side, telecoms held their ground — the sector was the only major index component to post a full-year gain in 2025, up over 11% year-on-year.

December Outlook

With the index sitting at multi-year lows and sentiment deeply negative, the contrarian case for December rested on one key variable: any indication that the Capital Market Authority (CMA) might accelerate its plans to open the market to foreign investors. Bloomberg had reported in Q3 that a CMA board member indicated they were close to approving a major amendment on foreign ownership limits. If a formal announcement materialised before year-end, the market response could be swift and significant. Absent that catalyst, the path of least resistance remained lower. December is historically a low-volume month and liquidity withdrawals by institutional investors completing year-end rebalancing typically amplify downward moves. Base case: TASI tests the 10,300–10,400 range. Upside scenario: a CMA announcement pushes the index back toward 11,000.