Brent Crude Jumps 5.4% to $96 as US-Iran Ceasefire Talks Collapse and Israel Pushes Into Lebanon

Brent crude rose 5.4% to $96.05 a barrel in Monday trading, and US West Texas Intermediate climbed 6.4% to $92.95, according to CNBC. Earlier in the session both benchmarks were up more than 3% (Brent at $94.05, WTI at $90.72) before the gains widened through the day.

The jump followed a weekend in which the United States and Iran traded strikes and Israel ordered troops further into Lebanon against Hezbollah. Talks to extend the US-Iran ceasefire have stalled. Iranian negotiators said they will not return to the table until Israel halts its operations in Gaza and Lebanon and pulls back from occupied areas, and US-hosted Israel-Lebanon talks on Friday produced no breakthrough.

That is a clean reversal from the picture just three sessions ago. On May 29 Brent settled near $91, a six-week low, after a month in which it gave up roughly a fifth of its 2026 peak on hopes the ceasefire would hold and the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Those hopes have faded, and the war-risk premium is back in the price.

For Saudi investors, the swing cuts both ways. Higher crude lifts the revenue outlook for energy-linked names and eases pressure on the fiscal break-even oil price, while a renewed threat to Hormuz raises the tail risk to the seaborne flows that carry most of the Kingdom's exports. TASI traded near 11,078 on Monday, holding its recent range rather than tracking the oil move tick for tick.

The next scheduled catalyst is the June 7 meeting of the eight-country OPEC+ group. Any change to output policy would now land on top of an already jumpy market.