Dated Brent at $131.97 Signals Extreme Physical Oil Market Stress as Hormuz Stays Shut

Dated Brent — the physical benchmark governing actual cargo pricing from 10 days to one month forward — struck $131.97 per barrel on Thursday, a level standing $36 above the front-month Brent futures contract trading near $96. That spread, among the widest on record, exposes the central paradox of the current energy crisis: oil is abundant on paper, and nearly unobtainable at the dock.

Brent futures had crashed roughly 13% in a single session on April 7 when the US-Iran ceasefire was announced, pricing in an imminent resumption of normal Hormuz traffic. Physical traders were not convinced. With only about a dozen tankers transiting the strait in the first 48 hours of the truce — against a pre-war daily flow representing a fifth of global seaborne crude — spot cargoes for near-term delivery have remained acutely scarce.

What GCC Producers Are Facing

For Saudi Aramco and ADNOC, the spread cuts both ways. Producers who can deliver barrels today are capturing a substantial windfall above the futures price. But sustained infrastructure damage — the East-West pipeline drone strike alone cut an estimated 700,000 bpd of alternative export capacity — means fewer barrels are actually reaching buyers regardless of price.

WTI futures rose 0.6% to $98.46 on Friday, reflecting a modest rebound from the ceasefire selloff as the market absorbed the continuing Hormuz blockage. Goldman Sachs has projected Brent above $100 for the full year if the strait remains closed beyond the current two-week ceasefire window. Futures are priced for a resolution. Physical oil is not.