Hormuz Remains Effectively Closed as US-Iran Ceasefire Shows First Cracks
Two days into the US-Iran ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed — with Iran charging tolls exceeding $1 million per vessel and restricting passage to a trickle. Tehran accuses Washington of violating the deal by permitting continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon, raising the risk of collapse before formal talks begin.
A two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, announced April 8 following intense pressure from Washington, has failed to reopen the world's most critical oil shipping lane. Barely a dozen ships transited the Strait of Hormuz in the first 48 hours of the truce — a fraction of the daily volume that once moved approximately 21% of global oil supply through the chokepoint before the conflict began.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps effectively suspended passage following Israeli strikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, which Tehran characterised as a US ceasefire violation. The White House rejected that interpretation, insisting Lebanon was never part of the agreement. President Trump warned Friday that Iran was behaving "dishonorably" by failing to restore normal shipping.
The Toll Problem
Beyond the political dispute, Iran has been charging vessels over $1 million per transit, creating an economic barrier that is keeping most commercial operators dockside regardless of any formal truce. Shipping insurers have not yet restored standard coverage for the route, compounding the cost burden on the handful of tankers willing to attempt passage.
For GCC energy exporters — Saudi Arabia chief among them — the effective closure compounds damage already inflicted by drone strikes on the East-West pipeline, which knocked out approximately 700,000 barrels per day of alternative export capacity. The kingdom has now lost both primary crude export arteries simultaneously.
Formal peace negotiations between the two sides are scheduled to begin in Islamabad, Pakistan this weekend. Until a durable agreement emerges — one that includes enforceable provisions on Hormuz transit — markets will continue to price in a significant risk premium on physical energy supply.
Ships in 48 Hours
~12
Vessels transiting Hormuz in first two ceasefire days vs. normal daily flow of 20–25 tankers
Iran Transit Toll
>$1M
Per-vessel fee Iran is charging commercial tankers attempting Hormuz passage
Saudi Export Capacity Lost
700,000 bpd
Barrels per day removed by drone strikes on the East-West pipeline
