TASI Market Wrap — April 2026: A Tariff Shock, a Ceasefire, and a Round Trip to Flat

April was a round trip. TASI cratered more than 6 percent intraday on a US tariff shock early in the month, then climbed back on a US-Iran ceasefire, and finished roughly where it started, near 11,190, essentially flat after the March 31 close of 11,167. The flat headline hides one of the most violent months the Saudi market has traded in years.

The tariff shock

The drop came first. Around April 6, a US reciprocal-tariff framework that placed a baseline duty on Gulf imports hit the market, and TASI fell to an intraday low near 10,657, a loss of more than SAR 500 billion in market value in a single session. Aramco took the largest single hit, roughly SAR 340 billion given its index weight. The market clawed back the next session, closing April 7 up about 1.1 percent, which set the tone for a sharp recovery through mid-month.

The ceasefire and the oil whip

The rebound got its fuel on April 8, when the United States and Iran agreed an initial two-week ceasefire that promised safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The relief was real but the plumbing lagged. Implementation slipped within a day, tolls and blocked tankers persisted, and oil stayed extraordinarily high. Brent opened the month near $105, averaged around $117 for April, and dated cargoes traded above $120 even after the ceasefire headline. For a crude exporter that is a windfall on price, set against the volume lost while Hormuz stayed choked.

Sectors and stocks

The rotation told the war story. Pipes and steel led as investors bet on infrastructure and pipeline demand, with Petro Rabigh up about 41 percent, Saudi Steel Pipes up 30 percent, and Arabian Pipes and East Pipes both up more than 20 percent on the month. Banks were strong into mid-April. The laggards were defensives and media, with National Medical Care and the Saudi Research and Media Group both down double digits. Aramco ended April up about 1.3 percent despite the tariff-day damage.

Flows, liquidity, and the macro frame

This was the first full month with the market fully open to foreign investors after the Qualified Foreign Investor regime was scrapped on February 1. Early April still saw foreigners as net sellers, a cumulative outflow of roughly SAR 1.08 billion over three weeks, as oil and tariff uncertainty kept overseas money cautious. Trading value for the month ran about SAR 125.5 billion. The riyal peg held at 3.75 without a flicker, backed by SAMA reserves near $495 billion, and the repo rate stayed at 4.25 percent. With Brent averaging in the triple digits, the Kingdom ran well above its budget breakeven for the month, so the fiscal story stayed comfortable even as equities whipped around.

April closed the way it opened, near 11,190. The lesson of the month was not the level but the path, a market learning to price a tariff and a war in the same four weeks.